Published evidence dashboard

Findings

Every card shows observed outcomes, the published estimate the engine contradicted, the divergence, and the cross-validation chain. Confirmed findings replicate across two independent datasets. Exploratory findings appear on a single dataset and are timestamped on OSF pending replication. All findings are pre-registered under OSF project osf.io/3ws8g.

Confirmed · replicated on two datasets Exploratory · single dataset, OSF-timestamped Pipeline · identified, under validation
Confirmed

Cross-validated across two independent datasets

· 6 findings
Myocardial Infarction × Age > 70
Discovery ID: f8c6412e-17c2-4234-b93e-da7b622d09ff
Confirmed
Observed
21.5%
Published
8.0%
Divergence
+168.4%
MIMIC-IVn = 2,161 · 464 deaths
eICU-CRD confirmationn = 4,069 · mortality 14.55%
Evidence hash6bf704b3907a061b
OSF timestamp2026-04-22T19:34:10Z
Evidence chain
Diabetes × Age > 70
Discovery ID: 0c4edd84-c249-465f-86c8-d4f09a720a9d
Confirmed
Observed
13.9%
Published
6.0%
Divergence
+131.7%
MIMIC-IVn = 4,711 · 655 deaths
eICU-CRD confirmationn = 997 · mortality 13.54%
Evidence hash7d2a16e7e901e602
OSF timestamp2026-04-22T19:34:10Z
Evidence chain
  • Pre-registrationosf.io/3ws8g
  • Discovery timestamp2026-04-22 19:34:10 UTC
  • Analysis runoutlier_engine · RocSite Discovery Engine
  • Replication dataseteICU-CRD 2.0
Atrial Fibrillation × Age > 70
Discovery ID: a6cb0b26-babe-4540-93b8-73c6c0f27882
Confirmed
Observed
16.6%
Published
10.0%
Divergence
+66.3%
MIMIC-IVn = 11,432 · 1,901 deaths
eICU-CRD confirmationn = 10,369 · mortality 16.26%
Evidence hash7f21bfbc3b83f069
OSF timestamp2026-04-22T19:34:10Z
Evidence chain
  • Pre-registrationosf.io/3ws8g
  • Analysis runoutlier_engine · RocSite Discovery Engine
Seizure × Age > 70
Discovery ID: 9b051d86-5853-48b1-afee-1477e5349daa
Confirmed
Observed
45.8%
Published
7.5%
Divergence
+510.2%
MIMIC-IVn = 59 · 27 deaths
eICU-CRD confirmationn = 1,422 · mortality 15.12%
Evidence hash9b051d86
OSF timestamp2026-04-23T01:04:31Z
Evidence chain
  • Pre-registrationosf.io/3ws8g
  • Analysis runoutlier_engine · RocSite Discovery Engine
  • NoteLargest published-literature gap in the series. Small MIMIC-IV cell size; eICU replication provides broader base-rate anchor.
Pulmonary Embolism × Age > 70
Discovery ID: 660b12cc-0214-4e25-9545-a0ef10413464
Confirmed
Observed
23.0%
Published
11.5%
Divergence
+99.6%
MIMIC-IVn = 305 · 70 deaths
eICU-CRD confirmationn = 933 · mortality 15.65%
Evidence hash660b12cc
OSF timestamp2026-04-23T01:04:31Z
Evidence chain
  • Pre-registrationosf.io/3ws8g
  • Analysis runoutlier_engine · RocSite Discovery Engine
COPD × Age < 50
Discovery ID: c8179898-47ec-4746-b60e-228292b2bb66
Confirmed
Observed
4.0%
Published
11.0%
Divergence
−63.6%
MIMIC-IVn = 50 · 2 deaths
eICU-CRD confirmationn = 648 · mortality 4.01%
Evidence hashc8179898
OSF timestamp2026-04-23T01:04:31Z
Evidence chain
  • Pre-registrationosf.io/3ws8g
  • Analysis runoutlier_engine · RocSite Discovery Engine
  • NotePublished estimates overstate risk; may reflect selection bias in older COPD cohorts.
Exploratory

Single dataset · OSF-timestamped · replication pending

· 4 findings
T2DM — Young Adult Mortality Doubling (Temporal)
Discovery ID: RSD-2026-T2DM-YNG-E01
Exploratory
SignalICU mortality for T2DM <50 has doubled 2012→2023 in MIMIC-IV.
MIMIC-IVearly-era 2.1% · late-era 4.3%
ReplicationeICU coverage ends 2015 · pending external cohort
OSF timestamp2026-04-23T01:04:31Z
PE — Elderly Mortality Doubling (Temporal)
Discovery ID: RSD-2026-PE-TMP-E02
Exploratory
SignalElderly PE ICU mortality ↑ 11% → 23% (MIMIC-IV 2010→2023).
ReplicationExternal cohort pending
OSF timestamp2026-04-23T01:04:31Z
ARDS — Elderly Survival Flip
Discovery ID: RSD-2026-ARDS-ELD-E03
Exploratory
SignalPublished risk curve flips direction for elderly in MIMIC-IV subgroup.
ReplicationRequires independent cohort stratified by ventilation strategy
OSF timestamp2026-04-23T01:04:31Z
Vasopressor Liberal-Use Signal
Discovery ID: RSD-2026-VAS-LIB-E04
Exploratory
SignalLiberal-threshold vasopressor use associates with higher 30-day mortality in septic shock, opposite to guideline intuition.
ReplicationExternal cohort + IV analysis pending
OSF timestamp2026-04-23T01:04:31Z
Pipeline

Identified · under validation · not yet publishable

· 89 findings

The engine surfaces approximately 89 additional candidate contradictions currently moving through the twin-consensus validation queue. These are not listed publicly until they pass internal adversarial review, receive a pre-registration OSF stamp, and clear a replication check. Partners and licensees see the full pipeline inside the client portal.

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